4 DARK HORSE ACCESS BOWL CANDIDATES

G5 Blog Original Content

ACCESS BOWL DARK HORSES
The biggest prize in G5 football is the Access Bowl. We decided to look at a few teams that might not immediately come to mind when predicting who will make this years Access Bowl but who never the less have a chance to represent  the G5 in this important bowl game.

1. Arkansas State: Head Coach Blake Anderson has a terrific reputation among College football coaches. Now that Coach Anderson is in his 2nd year as head coach of the Arkansas State Wolves look for him to continue to create a culture of winning at Ark State.  Red Wolves QB Fred Knighten returns for Senior year. While not the greatest QB in College Football, he is steady and could prove to have a very nice Senior campaign. The Red Wolves have some nice talent in RB Michael Gordon and last years leader in yards at WR 6'2 Tre Houston.

If the Oline can continue to give solid play and the Defense improve from last years very average effort, the Arkansas Red Wolves could be making headlines in January 2016.

2. Colorado State: Colorado State begins life without their former Head Coach Jim McElwain this year. Fortunately, McElwain, who took the Florida Gator job shortly after the season ended, did not leave the Ram cupboard  bare including All American WR Rashard Higgens.

New Head Coach Mike Bobo( formerly the OC for the Georgia Bulldogs) has an excellent football mind and should have plenty to work with when he prepares the Ram's for their season opener against Savannah State in Sept at Hughes Stadium. The biggest questions for the Rams will be finding a replacement for Qb Garrett Grayson and learning to co exist with their new head coach. Don't be surprised however, if the Rams make a nice run at and are in the mix for the Access Bowl in January.

3. NAVY: Navy should not be as competitive as it against FBS teams. Navy players are typically undersized, under recruited and often under tremendous pressure in their every day school lives to perform tasks that most college students are not asked to perform. This is why Head Coach Ken Niumatalolo is such asset to the Navy program. Coach Niumatalolo understands the Naval Academy culture and instead of bemoaning the challenges that face Navy football players, he turns them into assets.
Don't feel to sorry for this Navy team however, as it boasts some quality players and a Veer offense that makes even the best of the FBS look foolish. All world Senior QB Keenan Reynolds returns for his Senior year and should continue to run the Navy offense like a well oiled machine. Navy joins the AAC Conference this year and could make a run for both the AAC Championship and the Access Bowl in January.

4.HOUSTON COUGARS: Houston Cougar fans are hungry for a football team that lives up to expectations and the level of talent on the team.  Attracting gifted  players has never been an issue for the Cougars. Finding a way win with those players however, has been the achilles heel for this program.

Last year when Houston hired Coach Tom Herman, the former OC for Ohio State and winner of the Frank Broyles Award for the best assistant coach in FBS football, the Cougars made a giant step towards rectifying their underperforming history. Coach Herman is one of the best recruiters in the country and has a very good football mind to boot. Combine this with returning QB Greg Ward Jr and the Cougars could be hot on the trail of the Access Bowl this January.

Stay tuned.

ESPN APP STATE PREVIEW

ESPN APP STATE PREVIEW

MAC GAME ATTENDANCE DROPS BY MORE THAN 1300 FANS IN 2014

NIU Player gives thumbs up after big play

MAC FOOTBALL ATTENDANCE

While most FBS teams have been struggling with football attendance of late, the MAC Conference has been hit particularly hard in the last year with dwindling stadium numbers. The following story is a good read and a cautionary tale about game attendance going forwardMAC FOOTBALL WOES.



(*G5 News and Issues has the distinction of being the first blog solely dedicated to covering G5 sports. With over 40,000 web hits since its inception we have a dedicated and loyal base of readers. Thank you for finding us and sharing your thoughts. Thank you also for being patient as there are times when content is limited.)

2014-2015 G5 SCHOOL OF THE YEAR AWARD: GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES

GEORGIA SOUTHERN 2014-2015 G5 SCHOOL OF THE YEAR


Congrats to the Georgia Southern Eagles for capturing the inaugural G5 School of the Year Award from the  G5 News and Issues Blog. The award is given to the G5 school that in our opinion has risen  to a  distinctive level of excellence and competitiveness within Collegiate athletics. The award also takes into consideration school championships, competitive olympic sports and the overall impact a team or teams(within the same school) have had on the college sports world.

Georgia Southern is this year's award winner  based primarily  on their impressive transition from FCS to FBS football and their improbable capturing of the Sun Belt football title in their very first year of FBS competition. Georgia Southern has a rich tradition of football beginning with the father of modern day Georgia Southern Football, the legendary coach Erk Russell.

Georgia Southern , who had a fast rise to football power in the FCS world( winning their first 1AA Championship after only 1 year of official play in 1985), is out to prove that they have the pedigree to make the same type of impact in the world of FBS football as well.

Head Coach Willie Fritz deserves accolades for the way in which he and Georgia Southern Athletic Director Tom Kleinlein prepared the Eagles for their FCS to FBS transition. Kudos also to Sun Belt Director Karl Benson for quickly picking Georgia Southern as a replacement for several exiting Sun Belt teams to Conference USA. Georgia Southern proved this year that Universities with small tv markets can be strong and viable competitors in the world of college sports.

Georgia Southern has the history, fan support and infrastructure to be a consistent and powerful competitor in FBS football. With a strong and loyal fan base and a commitment to win that permeates all corners of the University, Georgia Southern is in an excellent position to continue its impressive winning culture. So hats off to the players and to all those who support Georgia Southern football.  The future looks very bright for your program and University.
(note: Georgia Southern was also our new comer of the year award winner:G5 Awards)

HONORABLE MENTIONS

MARSHALL
BOISE STATE
UCF
COLORADO STATE
MEMPHIS




(*G5 News and Issues has the distinction of being the first blog solely dedicated to covering G5 sports. With over 40,000 web hits since its inception we have a dedicated and loyal base of readers. Thank you for finding us and sharing your thoughts. Thank you also for being patient as there are times when content is limited.)

5 EARLY PREDICTIONS FOR THE G5

                                         

1. MARSHALL STUMBLES
Marshall Football has become relevant once again thanks to Coach Doc Holiday and his Florida pipe line of talented players. This season however, Marshall and company will have to learn to live without Rekeem Cato, one of the most dynamic football players in College Football last year. Marshall also losses key players from a solid 2014 defensive unit.
Yes Marshall still has  gifted running back Devon Johnson, but Johnson will be called upon early and often as new QB and JMU transfer  Michael Birdsong learns the Marshall offense. Marshal has simply to many question marks and key losses to be a dominant team this year.  Don't be surprised if they struggle to win 6-7 games this year. Not bad, but not what the Marshall faithful want.

2. TEMPLE WILL BE IN THE HUNT FOR THE AAC CHAMPIONSHIP
With the return of an improving PJ Walker( QB) and a very good defensive unit, don't be surprised if Temple finds itself in the mix for the AAC Championship.  Temple Football coach Matt Rhule is proving himself an able motivator and smart game tactician. Temple is developing some nice depth and this depth should allow for a healthy rotation of fresh and talented players to make life difficult for opposing teams this year. Temple will easily earn a bowl spot this year and will make a serious run for the AAC Championship in 2015.

3.WESTERN KENTUCKY WILL WIN C USA

When the NCAA decided to allow talented QB Brandon Doughty to return to Western Kentucky for a 6th year ,a collective cheer went up from the Hilltopper faithful. Last year Doughty and Head Coach Jeff Brohm did something no other Conference USA team was able to do,  beat a very talented Marshall team.
Not only does Brandon Doughty return but so does the talent RB Leon Allen( Allen will need to stay out of trouble however, if he is to help Western Kentucky next season). In addition to Doughty and Allen, the Hilltoppers return the majority of the Defensive unit from last year. Western Kentucky struggled on defensive last year, but the return of so many players on that side of the ball will only help to improve that unit.  Look for Western Kentucky to slice through their CUSA schedule in easy fashion in  2015.

4. THE AAC WILL CLAIM THE ACCESS BOWL IN 2015

The AAC struggled last year to produce the results that Commissioner Mike Aresco was hoping for when he assembled his new conference. This year however, look for several of the top AAC teams to battle for Top 25 spots and look for one to make it to the Access Bowl. My early favorite is Cincinnati. With the return of Gunner Kiel and an improved front defensive 7 ,Cincy looks to be the class of the AAC this year and the G5. Memphis, UCF, ECU and Temple can all make compelling runs at the Access spot as well.

5. SUN BELT  WILL FINISH AS A TOP 3 G5  THIS YEAR

Give it up for Sun Belt Commissioner Karl Benson and his Sun Belt staff.  Faced with some very difficult decisions to make after North Texas, Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee State  bolted for Conference USA, Benson and company hit home runs with the additions of App State and Georgia Southern to the Sun Belt.
Georgia Southern proved their weight in gold last year as they earned top Sun Belt honors in only their first year of conference play. With more football centric schools than both the MAC and Conference USA, look for the Sun Belt to rebound this year and become a top 3 performer among the G5 conferences. With schools like Arkansas State, ULL and of course Georgia Southern, the future looks very bright for the Sun Belt Conference.

ECU PASSING THE TEST

SB PREVIEW

CONFERENCE USA: NEXT TV CONTRACT MOST IMPORTANT IN ITS PROUD HISTORY

CONFERENCE USA COMMISSIONER BRITTON BANOWSKY

G5 Original Content

THE NEW CONFERENCE USA

With the news this week that the Power 5 Conferences officially voted to allow its schools to pay their student athletes the so called "full cost of attendance scholarships"(Full Cost of Attendance Vote link) Conference USA found itself in an even more  challenging and difficult position as they engage in contract talks for a  new TV deal.( The current tv deal runs out in 2016 and is split between Fox, CBS and the American Sports Network for a reported 14 million annually) . Challenging and difficult because Conference USA is the first G5 conference needing to sign a new tv deal in the midst of the G5 vs P5 era of college football. Conference USA, and it's Commissioner Britton Banowsky are forging unknown territory in the midst of the biggest shake up in college football in 20 years. Complicating the search for a new tv deal  however, is that unlike in previous  years when the conference had basketball anchor Memphis and football brands  ECU, UCF, Tulsa and Houston to sell the league, Conference USA will now have to convince the tv sports world that schools like Marshall, La Tech, UTEP,  Rice , ODU and the others are as viable and marketable as the top schools that have bolted for the American Athletic Conference in the last two years.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE NEW CONTRACT

This is where the wild speculation can begin. There are however, some clues that point to a reduced contract amount and rocky road for the 14 schools that make up the new Conference USA. Here are 3 of those clues:

CLUE 1: CONFERENCE USA LOST ITS MOST MARKETABLE TEAMS: When Mike Aresco went looking for replacements for the now defunct Big East, (now the American Athletic Conference) he needed schools that met 3 important tv criteria: 1 brand recognition 2. competitiveness and 3. over all market viability. Aresco , a  former tv sports executive who at one point in his career was in charge of signing conference contracts for ESPN, used his best judgment and picked schools from Conference USA that meet the 3 point tv criteria the best.( according to Aresco at least)

Even after taking what he considered to be the best of Conference USA,  the American Conference was still only able to sign a tv contract with ESPN worth 2million a year. Certainly nothing to get excited about or certainly enough money to hang with the big boys in College Football. Aresco did however, procure the best exposure deal in all of the G5. Something that should pay dividends for the American in the future.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CONFERENCE USA: You do not need have an MBA to read the tea leaves on this one. If Aresco, who is an expert in sports tv contracts, picked what he considered to be the best of Conference USA, and after doing so still only inked a deal for 2 million a year per team, then things may not be looking very good for Conference USA . The chances for an increase in the current 14 million a year for Conference USA are slim at best based on this data alone.

CLUE 2: TV NETWORKS ARE WATCHING THE G5 VS P5 SPLIT CLOSELY: With the new G5 vs P5 culture now in full swing, it can be argued that the appetite for tv networks in souring on the G5 football product. Like it or not, college football fans are the most brand conscience and arrogant in the sports world. If you are a SEC fan for example, do you even know that there are 4 other Power conferences in existence, let alone 5 non power conferences in the world. TV people pay attention to trends and market data. Just how many football fans want to watch North Texas play Western Kentucky in football? Can Fox Sports for example ,make more money from a  Conference USA Saturday football afternoon match up, or a blood splattering, testosterone inducing UCF match up? 

How about NBC? NBC sports bid for the rights to the American Conference only to lose the bid to ESPN. Why did NBC lose? They lost or won(depending on who you ask) because they did not want to pay more than 2 million per team for what the American had to offer. NBC was not willing to pay more for the likes of UConn basketball and a decent AAC football lineup. Instead, NBC decided that its current sports lineup and  its big investment  in the English  Premier League Soccer(football everywhere else) was enough. 

All of this may spell bad news for Conference USA  This is not to say that Conference USA is without compelling match ups. Marshall and La Tech certainly proved this season that Conference USA teams could play some serious football . A hand full of  good football teams and a below average basketball league however, do not create compelling sports. Conference USA needs to beef up its basketball and some how shake the stigma that it's football is not very good before the conference can hope for a large increase in its current tv revenue.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CONFERENCE USA: The new G5/P5 divide  could spell big trouble for Conference USA. The conference, given time, could become a competitive league( it proved that it could this year) The big question however, is will the tv networks want to invest the time and money needed for the conference to grow?

CLUE 3: ESPN IS THE GODFATHER OF SPORTS AND THE GODFATHER MAY NOT BE PLEASED WITH CONFERENCE USA: In 2011 ESPN and Conference USA settled a law suit in which ESPN claimed Conference USA ditched its tv contract agreement with them. As a result, Fox Sports won the right to broadcast most of the  Conference USA games  leaving ESPN with only the Conference USA Title Game.(the ESPN title game ends in 2015) Conference USA gambled that Fox Sports would soon rival ESPN and put most of its proverbial eggs in the Fox basket. In hindsight, this was as bad as betting the house on the  XFL( a horrible league pro football league that folded almost as quickly as it started) vs the NFL. In short, Conference USA rolled the dice and made a mistake in not keeping ESPN as its money maker. Now ESPN is even stronger, more powerful and most importantly in a position to make or break College Conferences. Conference USA challenged the bull, and the bull won.

Now instead of having the full weight of ESPN behind it, even it meant playing week night games, ESPN seems to have chosen the AAC as its most important G5 portfolio product.  Does ESPN have room for Conference USA to come back? Of course it does , but Conference USA would most likely be stuck with a majority of its games on ESPN 3, and on Tuesday and Wed nights. This strategy has worked for the MAC, it remains to be seen however, if it would work for Conference USA.( ESPN's cheap gamble on the AAC seems to be paying off, as the highest rated bowl games among the G5 belonged to the AAC)

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CONFERENCE USA: Unfortunately the one network that could provide long term stability to Conference USA seems to have no interest in the conference at the moment. With its current  contacts with the MAC, the AAC, the SunBelt and The MWC, it seems unlikely that Conference USA would benefit financially or from the limited exposure ESPN would be willing to give the conference in a new tv deal.

FINAL THOUGHTS

There is no question that Conference USA faces a more difficult and uphill battle this time around as it looks for tv partners. With the college football landscape having dramatically changed  as well as the current  Conference USA lineup being very different from  the last time the conference signed a tv deal , things will certainly get interesting going forward. With a decreasing value for all things G5, the tv future looks very uncertain for Conference USA at the moment  If the conference has anything going for it however, it's that Britton Banowsky has proven over the years to be a shrewd negotiator  with the ability to pull rabbits out of the hat from time to time.

The good news for  Conference USA is that its brand still  carries more weight than the Sun Belt and is equal to the  MAC perception. With schools  like Marshall, La Tech, Rice Western Kentucky, and  UTEP, there certainly is a core worth building upon. The big question however, is how much money and time will Fox, CBS, NBC and ESPN be willing to commit in growing the Conference USA brand? If one of the big 4 does make a viable financial investment in the league, both the conference and the network could be rewarded nicely for it. On the other hand, it remains to be seen if  Conference USA has finally lost  its mojo during the last of  its varied and frequent realignment rebirths. 

Conference USA has built a reputation as a solid  and never say die conference. The conference seems to have 9 lives and the schools that received the most recent invites appear to be  very proud of being part of the Conference USA family. All though many clues point to a decrease in market value and tv revenue, Britton and his teams may prove more resilient than is expected of them.  Stay tuned for more on the Conference USA tv contract saga, including more  financial and tv network predictions from this blog.