Monday, June 30, 2014

UNC CHARLOTTE FOOTBALL: A PROGRAM TO WATCH


Original G5 Content


A PROGRAM IS BORN

On November 13, 2008, Charlotte Football was reborn. After years of  student and alumni support , the UNC Charlotte Board of Trustees voted to approve the creation of an FBS level program. In 2011, Charlotte Athletic Director Judy Rose, hired former Wake Forest Defense Coordinator Brad Lambert to serve as the 49ers first Head Football Coach. Lambert, who is known for his solid,  no nonsense coaching style, quickly became the 49er Football Program's best cheerleader, tirelessly making the rounds to media outlets preaching the 49er Gospel. Lambert, much like ODU's first Head Football Coach Bobby Wilder, is an excellent face and symbol for the young 49er Football Program.

The 49ers are set to fully join Conference USA and the FBS in 2015. (Charlotte basketball is already in Conference USA) The move to the FBS division of College Football is however, not without peril for the 49ers. The Mid Major market in College Football is more crowded than ever. In the past five years alone, schools like Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, ODU, UMASS and Georgia State, just to name a few, have decided to try their luck at FBS Football.

The driving force and  motivation to  enter the FBS division of College Football  is easy to understand,  Money. With soaring TV contracts for the best leagues and teams(see BIG MONEY FOR P5 CONFERENCES), often at 20 million  a year,  the allure of a potentially large payday has proven to be tempting for many schools to  ignore. So Charlotte, like the other new FBS programs,  has committed itself  to paying millions of dollars in start up costs all for chance of winning and winning big at the FBS level. Charlotte however, is unique, in that their Football Program was created specifically to go straight to the FBS Division as soon as the rules would allow.

Even with this unique mandate, UNC- Charlotte still faces many of the same challenges that any new or old  FBS Program must face.  Two of the most significant of these FBS challenges to Charlotte will be revenue streams and recruiting. We will briefly examine both of these issues, starting with the revenue issue first.

MONEY, MONEY, MONEY

It's no secret that the  P5 Conferences have been trying to distance themselves from the rest of College Football for the last two years. The perceived need of  the P5 to go it alone,  is in large part a product an over saturated market in College Football.  An over saturated market that they P5 believe threaten to dampen their own revenue streams.

There are,  for example,  125 FBS programs at the moment with four more set to enter in 2015. This will bring the FBS total to 129 schools. All 129 will need  money, lots of it.  One of the real challenges for Charlotte going forward will be the need for a steady flow of income.

FBS football programs are expensive to operate as the architects of Charlotte Football no doubt understand. Ever wonder just how expensive it is  to fund an FBS Program? Below is a small excerpt from an excellent article in the Journal ETHOS that breaks down the expenses and revenue of two Mid Majors. These two schools, Marshall and Texas State are very similar in size and scope to the new football program at  UNC Charlotte.

" For example, at Marshall University—a smaller top-tier program with a storied history—the expenses of the football team ($7,083,399) nearly wash out their revenue ($7,760,381).  The remaining “football” revenue only marginally supports the expenses of other sports.  Or, at Texas State University-San Marcos, a far less competitive football program at a university with enrollment numbers comparable to the University of Alabama, the revenue and expenses were both reported as exactly $5,633,155.  The point is that once you get out of the upper echelon of the top tier—let’s call it the football 1%—the sport is hardly profitable for itself, much less for universities.(ETHOS ARTICLE ON COST OF FBS FOOTBALL)

If Charlotte has hopes for a steady income stream or large payday from their newly formed football program, they will need to be creative in making this a reality.  Many new and old FBS  schools lose money or break even at best with their football programs.  UNC-Charlotte will need to negotiate the FBS carefully and wisely if they do not want the rest of their  athletic programs to suffer. The FBS is a big tank full of sharks and barracuda. Charlotte will need to avoid playing the role of minnow if it hopes to have a successful football program.

RECRUITING FOR UNC-CHARLOTTE

It is important to mention that Charlotte knows what it looks like to field a successful  men's collegiate team.  UNC-Charlotte Men's Basketball is for example a stellar program with a rich and proud tradition.  The UNC-Charlotte  men's basketball team has made the NCAA Tournament 11 times. They were also Conference USA Champions in  1999 and 2001. In fact Charlotte basketball should help raise the overall profile of Conference USA in the next several years. Basketball however, is not Football. This is especially true as it pertains to recruiting.

The state of North Carolina has suddenly become very crowded with FBS football programs. By the time Charlotte joins the FBS division of College Football, there will be 7 FBS programs vying for recruits in the state of North Carolina. Charlotte's main competitors for high school players will initially be Appalachian State and ECU. App State already has a very good pipeline of players from western North Carolina, as well as South Carolina and Georgia. ECU, the most dominant of the G5 programs in North Carolina, has a good pipeline in North Carolina, South Carolina and a renewed recruiting  relationship with Florida. Charlotte will need to convince players who are leaning towards App State or ECU, that they are a better fit for them.

Charlotte will also be competing against the rest of the FBS programs in North Carolina as well as programs like Clemson and South Carolina. All of this makes Charlotte's first few years in FBS competition crucial to the success of their program. If the 49ers start fast and win some games they are not supposed to win , then Charlotte suddenly becomes a viable option for quality recruits. Start slow and get blown out on a consistent basis and the 49er program becomes a place where marginal recruits find a home.

It has taken ECU and Appalachian State decades to not only build their fan bases, but also to carve out a niche for their programs on the recruiting trail. UNC-Charlotte will need great coaching, tremendous fan support and some good old fashioned luck to make the first few years of their FBS football life a success. Charlotte does have something however, neither of these programs have in terms of recruiting. That is they are situated in the middle of one of the most fertile recruiting areas in North Carolina, Mecklenburg County.  Charlotte will need to leverage this gold mine of recruiting to their advantage if they want to compete with the FBS schools in their region. They will need to do so fast however, as Appalachian State, the closest FBS program to Charlotte, appears to be on the brink of doing very good things once they enter the Sun Belt Conference.

GOING FORWARD

Charlotte offers a unique and intriguing FBS storyline . The school is located in North Carolina's largest city and in the midst of the recruiting hotbed of Mecklenburg county. They have a fan base that is passionate about their new  football program and a new stadium that is  both fan friendly and ascetically  pleasing. They have an excellent head coach in Brad Lambert and an administration that seems eager to make the football program a success and a priority.  Charlotte Football will also have the blessing and curse of a large media presence in both television and print.

There are  of course many obstacles that UNC-Charlotte will need to navigate if the 49er Program is going to succeed.  Two of the most difficult of these obstacles, as we have discussed, are revenue streams and recruiting. It is hard, however, not to be optimistic for the 49er Program going forward. The program, even in its infancy,  has many of the most important ingredients needed to compete and compete well at the FBS level.

UNC-Charlotte will be
a team  to watch over the next several years. If they are able to manage their considerable assets in wise and prudent ways, then Charlotte could become a Football Program that rises quickly and swiftly. Conversely, if the 49ers stumble out of the gate and fail to guide the program around the various pitfalls, they could be looking at many, many seasons of failure and disappointment.   Stay tuned....

Sunday, June 29, 2014

G5 MINUTE: CONFERENCE USA FACES ITS MOST DIFFICULT CHALLENGE TO DATE ON JULY 1





G5 Blog Original Content


There have been very few College Sports Conferences that have been  hit harder than Conference USA during the last two years of the often chaotic world of collegiate conference realignment.  On July 1st Conference USA,  which  losses ECU, TULANE and TULSA to the AAC and gains WKU from the Sun Belt ,ends their  latest and most dramatic phase of conference realignment.   July 1st also marks the beginning of a long road of rebuilding and rebranding for Conference USA. Rebuilding and rebranding for a conference that has seen the majority of its best programs leave  and join the AAC.

In a few short days ECU, TULANE and TULSA will join former Conference USA mates UCF, MEMPHIS, HOUSTON AND SMU in the  American Athletic Conference. Conference USA commissioner, Britton Banowsky, in order to replace these departing schools, turned to North Texas, ODU,MTSU, LA TECH, FIU, FAU, UTSA, UNC-CHARLOTTE and WKU. Half  of these programs come  from the Sun Belt Conference, while the other half come from new FBS start up programs or the WAC Conference. None of the replacement schools however, bring the name recognition ,winning tradition or brand power that the majority of the schools who are leaving Conference USA do.

Herein lies the real challenge for Britton Banowsky and Conference USA going forward. To take this new group of schools, including their lower profiles and somehow recapture the solid reputation Conference  USA has enjoyed in the past. There is little doubt that schools like Marshall , Southern Miss, UTEP ,RICE and UAB, will need to play a greater role in the rebranding of Conference USA if the conference is going  to remain relevant in College Sports.

Fortunately for the conference, MARSHALL seems poised to have a ground breaking year in football this season. The Thundering Herd will be lead by the  Heisman worthy QB Rakeem Cato. Apart from Marshall however, Conference USA football looks to be void of any news making programs, or teams that have the potential to make noise on ESPN this Fall.

Conference USA also faces an uncertain future in College Basketball. This year the conference was a one bid league with little on the horizon to indicate this might change over the next few years. WKU's entry into Conference USA is a plus, but until UAB among others gets it mojo back, Conference USA will encounter the worst of all battles in sports, the battle of perception. Right now Conference USA is losing the perception war, something Banowsky will need to counter if he wants his league to go beyond the one team stigma.

It is easy to forget that Conference USA was once home to outstanding College programs like Louisville, TCU and Cincinnati to name a few.  In fact the conference has an excellent history of sending its members on to bigger and better things. There are questions  , however,  if the new teams that have been brought into Conference USA  have growth capacity to transcend the confines of the conference like past Conference USA schools have. It is likely to early in the process of the new Conference USA to know the answer to this question.

One also has to wonder if Conference USA made a mistake this time around in going after markets instead of winning programs. Not inviting schools from the Sun Belt like UL and Ark State and passing them by  for newly formed programs like UNC-Charlotte appear to some to be short sighted and purely market driven. Will the Networks who will be providing Conference USA with its next tv contract be  more interested in markets or winning programs? Markets seem to matter very little for most G5 schools, as most G5 schools are not good for tv ratings.

One of the greatest challenge for Conference USA going forward  will be for the conference to prove that it can compete consistently on a regional and sometimes national level. The new schools in Conference USA will need to prove to recruits , fans and critics alike that the latest incarnation of the conference can stand the test of time just as it has in the past.  Conference USA has  consistently been one  the best mid major conferences in College Sports. At this point in its history though, Conference USA is essentially starting over with only Southern Miss and a few other schools serving as witness to the better days of the conference.

On July 1st Conference USA begins a new sports life. Can, however,  the latest group of schools match the past history of Conference USA? With strong competition coming from the maturing Sun Belt and MAC conferences as well as the G5 leaders   Mountain West and AAC , the future for Conference USA is unclear. The next few years will be crucial to the conference as it tries to differentiate itself from the rest of the G5 competition. Commissioner Britton Banowsky's greatest challenge as the commissioner  of Conference USA is about to begin. July 1st marks the start of that challenge for both Banowsky and the teams that will make up the new Conference USA. Stay tuned to see how it unfolds.




PHIL STEELE RANKS AAC BEST G5 CONFERENCE, SUN BELT LAST. COMPARE OUR 3RD PLACE SUN BELT RANKING TO STEELE'S


Original G5 Blog Material

Phil Steele, the College Football prediction guru, has released his College Football Conference rankings list. Steele lists the G5 conferences in the following order:

1. AAC
2. MWC
3. MAC
4. CONFERENCE USA
5. SUN BELT

Steele's rankings and the G5 Blog rankings are similar only in the first two spots where we both have the AAC and MWC in the 1 and 2 positions.  Here are the G5 Blog Conference rankings from  two months ago.

1. AAC
2. MWC
3. SUN BELT
4. MAC
5. CONFERENCE USA
( For a more in depth explanation of these rankings click here: G5 NEWS AND ISSUES CONFERENCE RANKINGS


Some disagreed with the G5 Blog and its number 3 ranking of the the Sun Belt .  Here is what I wrote about the Sun Belt and its number 3 spot in our list:

3. SUN BELT CONFERENCE : This might come as a surprise to some people, but not to those who follow the Belt closely.  The Sunbelt has earned its number 3 rating because of strong football and strong football schools that have been added since realignment. App State and Ga Southern were excellent  picks for the Sunbelt.  The Sunbelt has more pure football schools in it's conference than the MAC and Conf USA do. What the Sunbelt is missing however, is competitive basketball. Sunbelt basketball should be sued for gross negligence. If I were Commissioner  Karl Benson, I would hold an emergency meeting with the conference AD's to discuss the dismal state of Sunbelt basketball. On the other hand, football schools like Ark State, ULL and the new additions of the Sunbelt should keep this conference competitive for many years to come.


I am perplexed as to why Steele ranks the Sun Belt last among the G5 Conferences as his own statements and data seem to contradict his rating of the Belt.  Concerning the 2014 Sun Belt Steele writes:
"Last year the Sun Belt went 19-21 in nonconference action, which was the best mark in their history and a better overall record than the Mountain West, C-USA and MAC. "

These comments and data make it clear that the Sun Belt was more competitive than both the MAC and Conference USA last year. Not only did the Sun Belt have the best non conference record last year but one of the Belt's best teams,  UL , has beaten the likes of ECU, Tulane and San Diego State in the last 3 years. 

It's clear that the Sun Belt still has work to do in transforming its brand and image. The Belt  will need to continue to win key OOC games as well as games  against  other G5 schools  in order to make believers out of doubters. The good news for Sun Belt fans is that it's leadership has chosen wisely in bringing in football centric schools like App State and Ga Southern to replace the programs that left for Conference USA.

We will revisit our own G5 Conference rankings and Steel's rankings at the end of the season and grade each one in accordance with how close or far away each of us has been. Stay tuned.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

AAC COMMISSIONER MIKE ARESCO TRAVELS TO GREENVILLE, NC TO WELCOME ECU TO THE AAC


AAC Commissioner was in Greenville ,NC today( Tuesday June 24th) to officially welcome the Pirates to the AAC. Click here for the Full Story.

CONFERENCE USA COMMISSIONER BRITTON BANOWSKY TESTIFIES AT O'BANNON TRAIL

BANOWSKY TESTIFIES AT O'BANNON TRAIL(link)


Former UCLA basketball player and professional athlete Ed O'Bannon is suing the NCAA for antitrust practices. O'Bannon believes that he and other NCAA athletes are due compensation from the NCAA for the use of likeness on everything from live broadcasts to team calendars.

Conference USA commissioner Britton Banowsky has been on the stand testifying about issues of profit and school financial burdens at the O'Bannon trail.  One of the more interesting aspects of Banowsky's testimony however, seems to indicate that Conference USA schools have decided to pay the so called cost of attendance fees being promised by the P5 conferences. Stay tuned