NORTH TEXAS FACES UNCERTAIN FUTURE ON GRIDIRON, AGAIN

2013 DREAM SEASON?

Did the 2013 season for the North Texas Mean Green really ever happen? After a decades long losing slump, 3rd year Head Coach Dan McCarney lead a Senior laden team to one of North Texas best seasons ever. The season ended with an impressive win in the Heart of Dallas Bowl over a competitive UNLV team.

The 2013 campaign for North Texas felt as if the Mean Green program had finally turned the football corner. 2013 held many promising advances for the struggling North Texas program. An invite to Conference USA, a conference with more star power than their previous conference, the Sun Belt, a brand newish  stadium and a Head Coach in Dan McCarney with a proven winning track record. With so much promising upside in 2013, many of  North Texas faithful believed that it was finally the year that would launch a new era in North Texas football, one that the loyal Mean Green fan base had been dreaming of for many, many years.

2014 BEGINS WITH A PROMISE

Further raising the hopes of the Mean Green faithful and contributing to the new found swagger of the program, happened  in 2014 , when Conference USA Head Coaches picked North Texas to win Conference USA's Western Division. Any time a College Football program gains the respect of the tight knit Head Coaching  fraternity it is time to stand up and  take notice. Unfortunately for the North Texas fan base however, the promise of another great season quickly faded as the 2014  campaign found North Texas in an all to familiar place, on the losing end of a dismal  season.

WHAT HAPPENED?

It turns out that former North Texas Head Coach, Todd Dodge, had recruited one heck of Senior class.  In 2013 , McCarney plugged Dodge's former recruits into his pound and ground system and found a great mix of skill players and gritty performers . With players like OLB Zach Orr and Qb Derrick Thompson, the Mean Green were able to impose their will on many of their new Conference USA Mates. In 2014 however, the North Texas program found itself unable to replace Orr , Thompson or a host of other Seniors who brought both leadership and a winning attitude to the program.

McCarney's North Texas squad struggled at almost every position this year, including the all important  QB  position.  North Texas, in fact,  struggled to find one QB who could do what OC Mike Canales needed his signal caller to do, win games.  While the Mean Green returned some experience and talent to their offensive line this year, no one emerged in the backfield capable of taking advantage of the brawn and talent of the big guys  up front.  All of this uncertainty culminated in The Mean Green having one of the worse offensive teams in the country this year,  finishing as the 113 ranked Offense out of 126 FBS teams.

The one bright spot this year for the Mean Green was on the defensive side of the ball. In spite of no one emerging  to fully pick up  Zach Orr's on field production, North Texas still managed to end the year with a respectable  43rd  ranked Defense in the FBS. North Texas new defensive coordinator Chris Cosh( fixed from earlier ) will have some talent in the stable next year as he looks to install his own defensive philosophy to the program.

WHAT NEXT?

Okay North Texas fans, here is the G5 Conference News and Issues blueprint to ensure that  North Texas gets the job done on a consistent basis.  We will start with the mother's milk of all College Football Programs, recruiting.


1. Recruiting has to get better:
North Texas sits in the very fertile recruiting grounds of Dallas and its suburbs. If North Texas is going to ever turn it's program into a consistent winner it will have to  make headway into these rich High School recruiting grounds. Few FBS programs  find themselves so close to some much talent and yet unable to capitalize on it. In looking at Dan McCarney's last several recruiting class, he like so many before him at North Texas,  are missing the mark. North Texas will need to rebrand itself among the area recruits if it hopes to attract some of best in the area. Until the Mean Green program can capitalize  on the man power in its own back yard, it will continue its struggle to be relevant in College Football and in Conference USA.

2.Change the offensive philosophy:
There is a reason why the majority of mid majors now employ some type of Spread Offense. The Spread allows less talented teams to compete with more talented teams. Head Coach Dan McCarney needs to decide what the program is capable of doing and who it is capable of recruiting. McCarney can't decide if wants to ground and pound or throw the ball for a living. Let's make this easy North Texas fans, your team should be throwing the ball all over the field, every day, all the time. McCarney needs to take his staff to visit the coaches of ECU, Cincy, and Marshall. Sit at the feet of these teams and beg them for some plays. North Texas needs to become the Texas Tech of Dallas. Until there is a clear run and gun philosophy at North Texas, the Mean Green faithful can look forward to many more years of disappointing seasons and coaches that will be packing their bags on a regular basis.

3. Its about winning dummy:
Here is the last suggestion from us, someone in the North Texas Presidents office, needs to spray paint on the wall of every one from the President down to the lowliest administrator that it is about the winning dummy. The most successful mid major programs begin the winning process not with the Head Coach, but with the President of the University. In truth, it has never been clear to those of us who follow College Football, that the North Texas leadership has ever fully understand how important a winning football program is to the school. Heck were not ever sure if  previous North Texas President's even knew the school had a football team. Until there is commitment to win from the top-down at North Texas, the Mean Green faithful will be doing what they are going to be doing this Bowl Season, watch other programs  compete on tv and wonder , yet again, what could have been .

CONCLUSION

North Texas is like the underachieving friend that all of us have had at one time or another in our lives. Like that friend, we want to ask the North Texas Football program one question. What are you  waiting for? Really, what is the North Texas program waiting for?  North Texas finds itself in the middle of one of the best football states in the country with some of the best recruits in the country. We could come up with a dozen or so schools that would  geographically  trade places with  North Texas in a heartbeat.

Until however, there is a top to bottom evaluation of what the Mean Green football program wants or needs, North Texas will continue to struggle and consistently reflect on what could and should have been. Now, with the split between the G5 and P5 as distinctive as it has ever been, North Texas is quickly running out of time in its need to improve and put itself in the best situation possible for its football program.  If the Mean Green program hopes to keep pace in the new world of College Football and to  become an attractive candidate for any new wave of realignment, it will need to act fast. Time is running out for a  vision and mission that will make the Mean Green program an  attractive  partner for a better conference looking to expand its future footprint. Stay tuned.

MARSHALL'S DOC HOLLIDAY LIKELY TO MAKE MOVE THIS OFF SEASON

After a rocky start, Marshall's Doc Holliday has done a masterful job raising the profile of a decades long struggling Thundering Herd team. Holliday has reinvigorated the Herd program  to become the top team in Conference USA. In fact, Holliday's recruiting has put Marshall head and shoulders above every other team in Conference USA.(read Marshall Football) Now, with rumors swirling  that Holliday and Pitt are interested in each other, it seems reasonable that Holliday's time at Marshall might be coming to an end.

Holliday was hired in 2009 by  AD Mike Hamrick to turn the Marshall program into a winner. Marshall,no stranger to Championships and winning seasons, had been in a long winners slump since entering Conference USA in 2005.  Hamrick hired Holliday in the midst of a coaching arms race in Conference USA. Former Conference USA school's, UCF, ECU, Houston,  and Tulsa as well as current conference mate, Southern Miss, had dominated the Conference USA winners circle for years. Good schools push other schools in their conference to either get better or get worse, Hamrick decided that he wanted the Thundering Herd to get better. If Marshall was going to keep up with the cream of the Conference USA crop, the program would need to hire a superior coach. In many ways, Holliday represents the last of the old guard in Conference USA. A conference  that once was a cradle for talented coaches  learning  their craft and then moving on to larger schools.

Holliday's biggest asset  has been his strong recruiting ties to Florida. Holliday quickly made the Thundering  Herd recruiting classes the highest rated in Conference USA. Early on in his Head Coaching career with the Herd however, it looked as if his teams would have great on field talent, but average coaching. As a first time head coach, Holliday made some rookie mistakes that cost the Herd games early in his coaching tenure. He quickly learned however, that just as important as good players, are good assistant and position coaches. To his credit, Holliday, over the last two years, has assembled one of the best coaching staff's in Conference USA. The result of which, have been two 10 win seasons in a row and the reality of being one of the best G5 programs.

Marshall's dilemma  in keeping Holliday is two fold, money and conference prestige. Holliday is not even the highest paid coach in Conference USA this year. Couple this with very public comments by the CFP( College Football Playoff Committee) of no confidence in Marshall's bid for the coveted Access Bowl this year( largely because of its weak schedule in Conference USA) and the time looks right for a speedy Holliday departure. Further complicating Marshall's attempt at keeping Holliday is the reality  that a 12-1 season this year has landed the Thundering Herd in an a bad bowl game against a G5 opponent that will garner little interest to the rest of the  college football world.

Doc Holliday will be an asset to any P5 school looking for a coach with strong  ties to talent rich Florida  and a proven ability to learn from his mistakes. If Holliday does leave after this season, the Marshall program will face a very uncertain future. Holliday is a double edged sword for Marshall, as his gift to the program is largely  himself, a gift that will be very difficult  to replace if he leaves. Marshall has become the envy of Conference USA. If Holliday were to stay for several more years, the Thundering Herd would almost certainly become a  worthy candidate for the AAC if a slot were to open up in that conference. If Holliday does leave this year, Marshall recruiting will almost certainly regress. This regression, and the reality of playing in a watered down Conference USA, will make for some very nervous Thundering Herd fans. Stay tuned.

G3: CONFERENCE USA, SUN BELT AND MAC WILL NEED STRONG VISION AND LEADERSHIP GOING FORWARD

SOUTHERN MISS PLAYERS CELEBRATE AFTER A TOUCHDOWN

B2 VS G3
Marshall fans were understandably upset, when after waiting weeks to see their very good Herd football team finally get ranked by the CFP committee, they found themselves positioned behind a two loss Boise State team. Game over for Marshall.  Game over that is for the coveted Access Bowl slot .(The Access Bowl is awarded to the top G5 school)The CFP committee had sent a not so subtle message to Marshall Athletic Director Mike Hamrick; if you want to play with the big boys, schedule like the big boys. This sounds like reasonable advice, except when you look at Boise State's record and realize that their two losses had come from one P5 school and a good , but not great Air Force team. Something else was going on here. In a sport that has become dominated like no other by pedigree and blood lines, the CFP was essentially telling Marshall, that the league you are in, Conference USA, is not as good as the MWC or for that matter the AAC. The AAC as you recall, had one it's newest members, a one loss( at the time) East Carolina team, also ranked above the undefeated Thundering Herd  in the initial CFP poll. It does not take a  fortunate teller to read the tea leaves on what happened to Marshall this year. The College Football world has quickly and not so quietly divided the the G5 into two distinct categories, the  B2 and the  G3. The MWC and AAC are now the B2(Bridge leagues, bridge to the P5) and the Sun Belt, Conference USA and MAC are G3 (Gang of 3, )

G3
After just one short year in which the G5 and P5 were officially split by both nomenclature and money, there is now a discernible  split between the G5 as well. The AAC and MWC are in their  own B2 division, while the Sun Belt, Conference USA and the MAC are in their own G3 division. Within that G3 division, the ranking goes like this: 1. Conference USA  2. The MAC  3. The Sun Belt
When the CFP ranked both a one loss East Carolina team and a two loss Boise State team in front of an undefeated Marshall team, the split among the G5 was made official. The question for the G3 going forward however, is what now? It is unlikely that we will see a team among the G3 as talented as the Thundering Herd were this year for at least another decade or so. This means that the front runners for the Access Bowl slot in most years will likely come from the AAC or the MWC. This not only means that the G3 are likely to miss out on the Access Bowl money and prestige most years, it also means that the G3 have a full blown existential crisis facing them.

G3 VISION
I will begin this segment  with good news and bad news. First the good news, Conference USA, the Sun Belt and the MAC still have  some very good programs with which to compete. Georgia Southern, NIU, Marshall, La Tech, Ark State, ULL, Ohio, and WKU represent the top of the food chain in these leagues. Schools like MTSU, ODU, App State, Southern Miss, Rice and South Alabama, are teams that have great potential as well. These schools, along with the addition of a few others could form the backbone of a new league capable of making the MWC and the AAC stand up and take notice

The bad news however, is that these 3 conferences also have some of the worst teams in College Football both in terms of on the field play and brand recognition. Both of these facts  spell difficulty for the respect of the 3 leagues and  in the amount of money Tv Networks are willing to pay for their football and basketball product. It is telling for example, that Conference USA's new tv partner this year, The American Sports Network, paid little to no money to broadcast  Conference USA football and basketball this year.

Couple the struggling football product of these 3 conferences with not so good basketball as well as  fading fan attendance and you have some very real structural problems with the business model of the G3 going forward. One has to wonder if the tragic demise of UAB football a few weeks ago, awaits some of the other schools in the G3 as well.

SAVING THE G3
The G3 finds itself in an unenviable  position at the moment. At issue is how to generate more fan support, respect and dollars for the the 3 leagues. Unfortunately the options to  make the G3 more relevant are limited right now. With a clear emphasis in College football now on the P5 and the 4 spot playoff, the G3 are on the verge of becoming irrelevant in College Football.

Perhaps the best and only solution left for the G3 is for the creation of a new best of 3 conference. This conference would take the best schools in the G3 and then hope that this new group  would put pressure on the B2 for both dollars and respect. Any new best of the G3 would need schools like Marshall, La Tech, Ark State ,ULL and NIU to serve as anchors. Add schools like Ga Southern, ODU, Southern Miss, WKU and  Ohio. Add two more schools in addition to these 10 and you have a competitive and compelling new league. A league that would also certainly garner more Network and fan interest than what any of the G3 are doing now on their own.

What has become increasingly clear is that the status quo for the G3 almost certainly equals a slow march towards irrelevancy. Bold thinking and courageous leadership are called for if  the best of the G3 are going to make it in the new world of College Football. Time will tell if these schools understand how much they need each other and how important they are to each others survival. Time will tell also, if anyone will step forward and propose such a league. Stay tuned.

2 CHOICES FACING CUSA POST UAB

INTRO
With the  death of UAB football now a tragic reality, it's time to start thinking about the future of Conference USA post UAB.  Conference Commissioner  Britton Banowsky will need to think long and hard about who will replace UAB, if they are replaced at all. It seems unlikely that CUSA will allow UAB basketball to remain in the conference without football. Sorry Blazer's fans, but Conference USA has to treat the latest news from Birmingham as an opportunity to dip back into the murky waters of realignment. Here then are two choices Conference USA has in regards to moving forward in a post UAB world.

CHOICE A 
DO NOTHING: 
Pros :Yes, doing nothing is an option for CUSA. Even without UAB, the league would still have 13 schools to solider on with. Doing nothing, slims the conference a bit and puts more money in  each of the remaining school's treasure chests. With an uncertain tv contract looming it certainly can be argued that staying at 13 members gives the league a little more financial piece of mind and allows the dust to settle from the last round of realignment. It also affords the 13 remaining teams a chance to build rivalries something the conference desperately needs.
Cons:There are some schools that could add  value to CUSA, or at least keep the conference on an even footing. Also, remaining at 13 teams makes for uneven divisions within the conference.
CHANCE OF CONFERENCE USA REMAINING AT 13 SCHOOLS: 30%

CHOICE B
ADD ONE OR MORE SCHOOLS TO THE CONFERENCE:
Pros: Adding one or more schools to CUSA gives the league yet another chance to raid the Sun Belt or perhaps even entice a school from the MAC to join them. Call it conference realignment 2.5. Adding another school gives CUSA an equal number of schools again at 14 and could position CUSA as the clear number 3 conference behind the MWC and the AAC. In fact, if C USA wants to be really bold, why not go after the best 2-4 teams from the Sun Belt. This would put considerable pressure on the Belt to stay even with CUSA and would give the Sun Belt fewer schools in which to pick from in their attempt to reload.

Here are my top choices for a CUSA invite from the Sun Belt:

1. ULL:
 Rich Louisiana recruiting grounds, a rabid fan base when motivated, think New Orleans Bowl, and a renewed commitment to win in football backed by a thorough long term strategic plan.
2. Ark State
Consistent winner over the last 4 years, one of only two FBS schools in their state, a commitment to win from the President of the School all the way to the grounds and maintenance guys.
3. Georgia Southern
Strong fan support, proven winner, a commitment to win( See Ark State description above) is a true football school from top to bottom.
4. South Alabama
Great recruiting grounds, has close to the same footprint as outgoing UAB, and could become a dominant player in CUSA sooner rather than later.

Choices from the MAC:
1.Akron: CUSA would give Akron an identity apart from the crowded Ohio schools already in the MAC, is a scrappy program that given the right support could become a consistent winner.
1a.Ohio: Consistent winner in the MAC, also, see the description for Akron above

HOW MANY SCHOOLS?
Okay, I am going to be bold here, if I was Britton Banowsky I would add my top 3 picks from the Sun Belt  to join CUSA. Yes it would mean less money for the schools.  But let's be honest,  CUSA is being paid peanuts now and I expect that their next contract will be for even less money than they are being paid now. Adding three schools is not about immediate gain, but rather a long term vision. Raiding the Sun Belt and taking ULL, Ark State and Georgia Southern, would leave a hole in the Sun Belt that I do not believe they would ever fully recover from. If we have learned anything from UAB its that the G5 schools are in a fight for their lives. The MWC and the AAC are  in much better financial and brand positions that CUSA, The MAC and The Sun Belt are not. While I hate for any G5  to suffer, we have entered a new and more dangerous phase of college football, a phase that has the potential to cripple many of the schools that are not in the Power 5 world. It now seems pertinent  for CUSA , The MAC and The Sun Belt to re-envision their long term plans. Adding, dropping or consolidating among the 3 now appear more necessity than luxury.

CONS: There are of course risks to adding one or more schools to CUSA. More schools mean more mouths to feed and  more time for the league to gel and form rivalries that matter to fans and more importantly to tv networks. The pros of adding one or more schools, however, far outweigh the risks of adding no one. CHANCE OF ADDING ONE OR MORE SCHOOLS 70%

CONCLUSION: College football has entered  a dangerous high stakes game of chicken.  In order to survive this new world,G5  schools will have to make hard choices going forward. UAB may just be the tip of the iceberg as Universities struggle to come to terms with rising football and scholarship costs. CUSA has an opportunity to re-envision  itself  in light of the new realities of college football. Why not make choices  with an eye towards the future, not just the present. Adding 3 or more schools from the Sun Belt meets this goal and then some. Stay tuned.

RIP TO A SCRAPPY, NEVER SAY NEVER UAB FOOTBALL PROGRAM, YOU WILL BE MISSED

What was once only a cruel rumor for the Blazer faithful has now become a stinging reality of the current college football landscape. G5 Conference News and Issues, has been high on both the Blazer fans(read:UAB FANS )and their new football coach Bill Clark(read:Bill Clark) since the inception of this blog. Now,after a dramatic and painful day, the UAB Blazer nation is searching for answers and struggling to come to terms with the decision of President Ray Watts and company to shut the program down.

Watts, during his 20 minute press conference given somewhere in the UAB command center/bunker, pointed to the growing deficit of the UAB athletic department and the drain the football team had put on the entire University budget. For all of the gory details click here to read the NYTimes synopsis of President Watts decision to drop UAB Football( click :UAB Drops Football)

UAB, who had struggled of late with both football attendance and winning, seemed to have been given a ray of hope in first year Head Coach Bill Clark. Clark led the Blazers to a 6-6 record this year and helped the program to become bowl eligible for the first time in many years. Clark however, and the Blazer's .500 record proved to be to little to late for the likes of Watt and the other bean counters at the University.

UAB is now the proverbial miner bird for College Football. It no longer seems out of the question that other struggling football programs like Ga State and UMASS might be next on the chopping block. Other University Presidents who are looking for a model of how or how not to kill a program, can now point to UAB as the case test.

What is clearer now than ever before, however,  is that all G5 schools are in a fight to the death. Any G5 leadership who fails to understand this new reality does so at their school's own peril. UAB fans have now learned this lesson in a cruel and unforgiving way.

SO, RIP UAB FOOTBALL, you will be remembered as a scrappy, can do program, who fought to the bitter end on a shoe string budget with  considerable odds stacked against you. You fought the good fight longer than most school's could have done given the considerable head winds your faced on a daily basis. For now, we raise a glass to the UAB Football Program and its incredibly loyal fan base. We will miss you on the football field, but more importantly will miss the spirit of your program and the Blazer faithful.