INTRO
With the death of UAB football now a tragic reality, it's time to start thinking about the future of Conference USA post UAB. Conference Commissioner Britton Banowsky will need to think long and hard about who will replace UAB, if they are replaced at all. It seems unlikely that CUSA will allow UAB basketball to remain in the conference without football. Sorry Blazer's fans, but Conference USA has to treat the latest news from Birmingham as an opportunity to dip back into the murky waters of realignment. Here then are two choices Conference USA has in regards to moving forward in a post UAB world.
CHOICE A
DO NOTHING:
Pros :Yes, doing nothing is an option for CUSA. Even without UAB, the league would still have 13 schools to solider on with. Doing nothing, slims the conference a bit and puts more money in each of the remaining school's treasure chests. With an uncertain tv contract looming it certainly can be argued that staying at 13 members gives the league a little more financial piece of mind and allows the dust to settle from the last round of realignment. It also affords the 13 remaining teams a chance to build rivalries something the conference desperately needs.
Cons:There are some schools that could add value to CUSA, or at least keep the conference on an even footing. Also, remaining at 13 teams makes for uneven divisions within the conference.
CHANCE OF CONFERENCE USA REMAINING AT 13 SCHOOLS: 30%
CHOICE B
ADD ONE OR MORE SCHOOLS TO THE CONFERENCE:
Pros: Adding one or more schools to CUSA gives the league yet another chance to raid the Sun Belt or perhaps even entice a school from the MAC to join them. Call it conference realignment 2.5. Adding another school gives CUSA an equal number of schools again at 14 and could position CUSA as the clear number 3 conference behind the MWC and the AAC. In fact, if C USA wants to be really bold, why not go after the best 2-4 teams from the Sun Belt. This would put considerable pressure on the Belt to stay even with CUSA and would give the Sun Belt fewer schools in which to pick from in their attempt to reload.
Here are my top choices for a CUSA invite from the Sun Belt:
1. ULL:
Rich Louisiana recruiting grounds, a rabid fan base when motivated, think New Orleans Bowl, and a renewed commitment to win in football backed by a thorough long term strategic plan.
2. Ark State
Consistent winner over the last 4 years, one of only two FBS schools in their state, a commitment to win from the President of the School all the way to the grounds and maintenance guys.
3. Georgia Southern
Strong fan support, proven winner, a commitment to win( See Ark State description above) is a true football school from top to bottom.
4. South Alabama
Great recruiting grounds, has close to the same footprint as outgoing UAB, and could become a dominant player in CUSA sooner rather than later.
Choices from the MAC:
1.Akron: CUSA would give Akron an identity apart from the crowded Ohio schools already in the MAC, is a scrappy program that given the right support could become a consistent winner.
1a.Ohio: Consistent winner in the MAC, also, see the description for Akron above
HOW MANY SCHOOLS?
Okay, I am going to be bold here, if I was Britton Banowsky I would add my top 3 picks from the Sun Belt to join CUSA. Yes it would mean less money for the schools. But let's be honest, CUSA is being paid peanuts now and I expect that their next contract will be for even less money than they are being paid now. Adding three schools is not about immediate gain, but rather a long term vision. Raiding the Sun Belt and taking ULL, Ark State and Georgia Southern, would leave a hole in the Sun Belt that I do not believe they would ever fully recover from. If we have learned anything from UAB its that the G5 schools are in a fight for their lives. The MWC and the AAC are in much better financial and brand positions that CUSA, The MAC and The Sun Belt are not. While I hate for any G5 to suffer, we have entered a new and more dangerous phase of college football, a phase that has the potential to cripple many of the schools that are not in the Power 5 world. It now seems pertinent for CUSA , The MAC and The Sun Belt to re-envision their long term plans. Adding, dropping or consolidating among the 3 now appear more necessity than luxury.
CONS: There are of course risks to adding one or more schools to CUSA. More schools mean more mouths to feed and more time for the league to gel and form rivalries that matter to fans and more importantly to tv networks. The pros of adding one or more schools, however, far outweigh the risks of adding no one. CHANCE OF ADDING ONE OR MORE SCHOOLS 70%
CONCLUSION: College football has entered a dangerous high stakes game of chicken. In order to survive this new world,G5 schools will have to make hard choices going forward. UAB may just be the tip of the iceberg as Universities struggle to come to terms with rising football and scholarship costs. CUSA has an opportunity to re-envision itself in light of the new realities of college football. Why not make choices with an eye towards the future, not just the present. Adding 3 or more schools from the Sun Belt meets this goal and then some. Stay tuned.
No way Ga Southern or S Alabama is a better choice than App State. When you consider at the funding, corporate and fan support, facilities and the all important identity factor the other two aren't even close.
ReplyDeleteIf UAB is kicked out, I think C-USA should go to 16 schools. Given that all Conference USA members are in the South, It is highly unlikely a Northern-based school would want to make a lateral move and become a conference outlier. Northern Illinois would not change leagues without it being a Power Five conference. There is no way founding Atlantic 10 member UMass would leave the A-10 unless invited to The American as a full member. They need to keep an Alabama presence due to strong recuiting there. South Alabama would serve this purpose. For the other 2 expansion choices, C-USA should go to Southern states without C-USA schools (Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, New Mexico, and Oklahoma) Arkansas State is a strong FBS program and South Carolina has 2 FBS schools (Clemson and South Carolina), New Mexico has New Mexico State available (WAC/Sun Belt Football). Oklahoma has Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Tulsa as FBS schools. Georgia State in Atlanta, GA would make a good 3rd expansion school as it is in a major city. New Mexico State would be the 4th choice for a team in a new state. In the case UAB has to go elsewhere, adding Arkansas State, George State, and South Alabama from the Sun Belt Conference, which would be down to 8 full members and only 10 football members.
ReplyDeleteGood points. I think Ark State and South Alabama are good candidates for Conference USA. I am not however sold on Ga State. I would pick schools for Conference USA that are proven winners regardless of market size. I don't think the next tv contract for Conference USA is going to improve no matter who they add, so why not bring in schools that already play good football. Conference USA is chasing the MWC and AAC. The conference should reload with schools that give them the best chance to be competitive against these conferences.
DeleteGlad you found the blog. Again, I think you make some very good points in your analysis. Time will tell what direction Conference USA goes. They do however, have some good options good forward,
I agree, but C-USA already has a North Carolina school, UNC Charlotte.
ReplyDeleteThanks for finding the blog and contributing.
DeleteC-USA also has to replace UAB with an Alabama school as the state has excellent recruiting.
ReplyDeleteVery good point and one that I think makes sense for all involved. I wonder however, if Southern MIss is comfortable with this. Time will tell.
DeleteLouisiana Tech would likely block Louisiana-Lafayette from being added to C-USA.
ReplyDeleteUAB and Southern Mississippi are the only 2 continuous founding members of Conference USA as UNC Charlotte left for the Atlantic 10 for 7 years before returning.
ReplyDeleteAgree they would certainly try. I do think however, that UL would be a great addition to Conference USA. Bringing in schools that already play good football should be a top priority for Conference USA. If the conference plays their hand right, they can solidly the 3 place in the G5 and then begin to challenge the MWC and AAC for the top spots.
ReplyDelete