OBC(original G5 blog content)
SURVIVING THE NEW LANDSCAPE
The Gang of 5 landscape for the moment is calm, don't expect however, for that calm to last forever. While the Power Conferences drink champagne and eat caviar, the Gang of 5 are looking for ways to survive the latest configuration of College Football. Don't be surprised if a new round of invites and realignment take place as TV Networks reevaluate the value that the Gang of 5 represent in light of the new realities in college football.
A new round of realignment is well within the realm of possibility as Networks take a fresh look at television values and dynamics. If a new wave of realignment were to occur then it seems likely that the new wave would almost certainly be more dramatic ,sleeker and more strategic then previous rounds. This is especially true for Conference USA, the Mac and The SunBelt, as these conferences are in an even more precarious position then MWC and The AAC find themselves.
MWC AND AAC SAFE FOR NOW
The MWC and the AAC are the safest among the G5 in terms of both realignment options and television money for the moment . Although any new realignment among the P5 would likely come from these two conferences, the MWC and the AAC would simply reload and take their pick of the best schools from Conf USA, the SunBelt and even the MAC.
The AAC and the MWC both recently signed new primary tv contracts with ESPN through the year 2020. The MWC contract is reportedly worth $116 million while the AAC contract is reportedly worth 126 million. Both conferences also have secondary deals with CBS.
The AAC contract with ESPN, however, was a far cry from the one that the Big East had signed years earlier. Some of the schools in the AAC most noticeably SMU, UCF and Houston had been lured away from Conf USA with promises of a big pay day with the old Big East. When the AAC eventually signed their new contract for a much lower dollar amount, many of those schools believed that ESPN had undervalued them. It is this undervaluing or small payout relative to the Power Conferences that should have Conf USA, the MAC and the SunBelt concerned when the valuation of their conferences begin anew by the Networks.
CONFERENCE USA, MAC AND SUNBELT CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE
With the MWC and AAC secure through 2020, the conferences that have the most to gain and the most to lose over the next few years are Conference USA, the MAC and The Sunbelt. Both the MAC and the SunBelt have contracts with ESPN, while Conference USA splits its contract between Fox and CBS.
The MAC contract runs through 2017 and is worth a reported one million dollars or $100,000 a year to each school while the SunBelt contract is reportedly worth even less than this amount. It was rumored in 2013 by various news sources that the MAC was in negotiations with ESPN to reopen its contract for more money. As of the date of this article,however, there has been no update on the progress of that event, if it even happened at all.
The Conference USA TV contract, split between Fox and CBS is reportedly worth 14 million a year. The Conference USA contract runs through the 2016 season. This means that Conference USA will be forced to renegotiate in the midst of the Power Conferences grab for more authority and power.( we will examine the new contract issues facing Conf USA in a future article)
One important question for Conference USA as it moves forward with its TV negations is this: How much of the new landscape has changed the way television Networks view the G5 conferences, especially those that are not at the top of the G5 list? If for example, ESPN undervalued and underpaid for the AAC, arguably the best G5 conference, does this also mean that Fox, CBS or even ESPN might do the same to Conf USA. How much is Conference USA worth in this new Power Conference world?
WHY MORE REALIGNMENT IN THE G5 MIGHT BE A NECESSITY
If the value of Conference USA turns out to be lower than it was in the pre Power Conference era and pre 2012-2013 realignment when teams like ECU, UCF, HOUSTON, TULSA and even TULANE called Conference USA home then what next? The pressures to bring in revenue to feed schools that are hungry for tv dollars might be to great to sit on the sidelines and accept the fate of smaller and smaller payouts.
At that point a further consolidation among the G3, the MAC, Conference USA and the SunBelt would become a necessity instead of a luxury. If this does occur then we could see the makings a new conference. A new conference that would take the best that the 3 conferences have to offer and to create an alliance of teams that is leaner, meaner and more able to compete with the MWC and the AAC. A so called best of the three could potential yield some very strong competition and value going forward.
While this scenario is not ideal as some very good programs would inevitably be left out of any new best of three conference, any and all options have to be on the table at the moment. The Power Conferences have shown no regard for anyone other than themselves and there is no reason to believe that this will change any time in the near future
We have entered a brave new world in College Football. A world in which it is not entirely clear if every FBS program will be able to survive and flourish. There may come a time when some conferences and programs have to make hard and unpleasant decisions. We may potentially get to a place where further consolidation is necessary in order to survive, Unfortunately given what we have seen over the course of the last two years, nothing seems as impossible or unlikely as it may have just five short years ago. Stay tuned.
While I agree with your premise I don't see the formation of a best of the rest conference just to compete with the AAC & Mtn West for TV dollars. I expect we'll see some reshuffling within CUSA and the SunBelt, into more regional alignments, to deal with the loss of TV revenue.
ReplyDeleteDoug, First thank you for finding this site and for commenting. I think you make some very good points. If the article made it seem as if the formation of a new conference from Conf USA, the MAC and Sunbelt, was all about just keeping up with the MWC and the AAC, then I did not not explain myself as well as I needed to.
ReplyDeleteI think if tv money fails to show up in the next several years, then schools will have to begin thinking more radically than they are right now to remain viable. I am not sure every G5 fan fully realizes just how much the game has changed in the last year. I really believe that we are quickly moving to a point that, if the money dries up, schools will have to decide if they are fully able to remain on the FBS level in way that they can be competitive and afford the program. If this happens then the only way to remain viable may be to form a so called best of the three, repackage yourself and try to sell your new brand to the networks. I am not all convinced that Networks, in this post P5 world, want to provide tv conferences in the way they have in the past. A new super conference however, would be easier for the Networks to justify payouts to.
So the scope of a new conference would have to be beyond simply competing with the MWC and the AAC it would have to do this and more. Again, I talking about situation that if the money dries up, remaining status quo or business as usual may not be an option like it once was. We are in new territory and the conferences that learn to adapt and be creative in this new world will be the ones that succeed in it.